Monday, December 26, 2005

Telecom Prediction

My prediction for 2006-2007:
  1. Bandwidth pricing will increase. L3 has already started raising the rates on old WilTel customers. Last two cheap providers will be GX and Cogent, except for resellers. Resellers will be scrambling all year to make their commitments, even if they have to give some of it away. But this will probably result in some resellers crashing out, leaving customers stranded. It will be a vicious cycle.
  2. The market is tightening. And VZ and AT&T can't have their winter wonderland of tiered Internet service if they sell their backbone cheap and un-tiered.
  3. The CLEC market will be all M&A or BK. As more fiber gets rolled out, CLECs keep getting cut off from customers and real estate.
  4. Wi-Fi will be big this year with XO, Sprint and MCI rolling out their licensed fixed wireless. Here's hoping they do it correctly so that the term "wireless internet" doesn't become mud.
  5. In the next 18 months, the remaining ISPs and CLECs have better have found a way to be inter-connected to cut the RBOCs out of their network as much as possible.
  6. Many VOIP providers will start crashing out too, as the FCC starts to enforce E-911, collect USF on DIDs, and what ever else Harry Potter can come up with.

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