Wednesday, June 30, 2004
June - What a Month!
June has been marked by one hit after the other...
... UNE-P regulations ruled out by the Federal Court on June 15th
(CLECs reeling from that ruling as Z-Tel & AT&T backed out of 18 states
by June 29).
... Brand-X / Open Access Cable decision extended till July 24
SuperComm 2004 had many surprises: Chairman Powell talking as if the
industry was going great; triple play; and IPTV by Microsoft.
"Powell said that, overall, he is optimistic about the future of the
telecom industry, and he thinks its worst days are over. "I think that
the industry will be hot a year from now. We'll be on fire.""
Rural Telocs are being encroached by both cable and Vonage. Hey, why
should they be any different? This battle being played out in Texas.
Time Warner and Vonage—both of which are overbuilding in its territory
north of San Antonio, Texas are competing against Guadalupe Valley
Telephone Cooperative.
http://www.billingworld.com/archive-detail.cfm?archiveId=7568&hl
VoIP over Powerlines ..... that was quick! First, the power companies
weren't sure they wanted to enter telecom again (or if they could with
their ancient grid infrastructure). Now they are trialing both Internet
and VoIP. (Makes sense, TW says that there is more margin in VoIP than
broadcast. No kidding with ESPN getting $2 per subscriber).
"You've no idea how much the MSOs have to pay content owners such as
ESPN for their feeds," warned Piehler, who said that while the cable
operators might drive a lot of revenue from their video and broadcast
capabilities, most of that goes back out the door to the major content
suppliers in license fees. "The MSOs look at VOIP as a better profit
opportunity," he added.
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=54954
Triple Play challenges include Billing (big surprise) and the "legacy"
DSLAM architecture that was made for Best Effort service which video and
voice are NOT.
AT&T dropped selling Residential Local & LD in 18 states this month. Ma
Bell is rolling out VoIP to Residential as well as the SME market. (Ma
Bell is actually SBC or Verizon - both bigger and meaner than the
original AT&T pre-divestiture).
TimeWarner is rolling out VoIP in its major markets.
Starz & Real Networks are offering Starz on Demand for $13 over broadband.
Verizon hints at summer changes...
"All this new stuff is going to be coming over the summer, and consumers
are going to be the beneficiaries," one Verizon marketing exec tells the
LA Times- referring to the company's VoIP and 3Mbps plans.
On the one hand, this month has been wild. Watching everyone encroach on
everyone else - Broadband taking landlines, LD and now premium channels
from the Big Boys. Cableco versus RBOC. Soon RBOC versus RBOC. The
yipping at the RBOC heels by AT&T and MCI over the UNE-P rules. The
total absence of equipment vendors and CLECs to even show up to watch
the fight.
On the other hand, it all represents the next telecom implosion. Only
the smart will survive. Retaining customers will be more important than
acquiring new ones.
--------------------
http://www.billingworld.com/archive-detail.cfm?archiveId=7568&hl
"It’s no secret that the more services bundled under one trusted brand,
the less likely customers are to leave a provider. In fact, Yankee Group
finds that tying two services together causes churn to fall by
one-quarter; tying three causes it to fall another eighth; and adding a
fourth leads to churn rates falling
an additional sixteenth. JD Power and Associates maintains that as much
as 40 percent of consumers would prefer all their communication
services—including local, long distance, Internet, TV and even
wireless—to be delivered by a single provider on a single bill. The
question remains of whether they’d prefer that single bill to come from
their phone company or their cable provider. There’s no question that
cable providers are poised to realize substantial revenue gains, as they
can upsell VoIP to existing subscribers already using pay-per-view and
Internet capabilities. Cable companies have already witnessed a 41
percent increase in spending, with an average of $42 spent each month. "
"Off the record, many industry pundits concede that triple play bundles
could potentially cripple existing activation, order management,
provisioning and billing systems. Some go so far as to say this will be
the thing that finally kills off legacy OSSes, as sophisticated access
networks will require complex configuration, provisioning, activation
and discovery. "
"However, consumers will respond to price for only a limited time,
because they will want to migrate to QoS-based enhanced services.
Carriers will have to acknowledge when someone downloads MP3 files it
can cause a VoIP connection to drop out or a video to be shaky. Carriers
will have to have well-defined service levels that exist independent of
one another. “You still have to put a physical DSL connection, but also
define and configure three or more logical connections on top of the
physical layer,” says Mark Nicholson, CTO and head of product
development at Syndesis.
----------------------------------------
from Jeff Pulver's blog:
June 25, 2004
Telecom is a 2004 Presidential Platform Issue!
Yesterday's speech by President Bush followed by a speech by Kerry made
it official: Telecom has become a platform issue in the 2004
Presidential race!
While I was in Washington, D.C. listening to President Bush, Kerry
offered what seemed like similar ideas on Thursday in Silicon Valley.
I liked what the President said regarding his Broadband Policy and I am
supportive of it.
I'm not sure how long ago it has been (if ever) since Telecom Policy has
been a campaign platform issue but I think it is great that it is, and
my hope is that we as a Nation can achieve the President's stated
Broadband goals for the United States by 2007.
Bush's speech is online; both a video and transcript.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/06/20040624-7.html
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